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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 74

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 42-E.Evans punts 46 yards to ARI 28, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.74 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model