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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 39

Arizona Cardinals 31 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 5-M.Prater 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.67 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP