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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 64

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 42-E.Evans punts 63 yards to ARI 1, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-21-C.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.64 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 22, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model