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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
Sunday 2024-09-08 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

PIT
38.1%
ATL
61.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ATL: Kirk Cousins (ATL) +0.102 vs Justin Fields (PIT) -0.070 EPA/dropback
  • PIT offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • ATL offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • ATL defense: -0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

PIT 20
–
ATL 23
Projected margin: ATL by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

PIT

Logan Lee DE Out Calf
Isaac Seumalo G Out Pectoral
Roman Wilson WR Out Ankle
Russell Wilson QB Questionable Calf

ATL

Antonio Hamilton CB Out Groin

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 18
–
ATL 10

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:09 FG ATL (9:09) 6-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. PIT 0 – ATL 3
  • Q1 04:42 FG PIT (4:42) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-5-C.Johnston. PIT 3 – ATL 3
  • Q2 12:58 FG PIT (12:58) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-5-C.Johnston. PIT 6 – ATL 3
  • Q2 00:38 TD ATL (:38) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 8-K.Pitts for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – ATL 9
  • Q2 00:03 FG PIT (:03) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-5-C.Johnston. PIT 9 – ATL 10
  • Q3 07:50 FG PIT (7:50) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-5-C.Johnston. PIT 12 – ATL 10
  • Q3 00:29 FG PIT (:29) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-5-C.Johnston. PIT 15 – ATL 10
  • Q4 00:31 FG PIT (:31) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-13-S.Miller. PIT 18 – ATL 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (9:09) 6-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 64%

    (4:42) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-5-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 12 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 76%

    (12:58) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-5-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 36%

    (9:11) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to PIT 9, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 22 for 13 yards (12-K.Hodge).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:57) 5-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to ATL 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 19 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:09) 5-C.Johnston punts 58 yards to ATL 21, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 26-A.Williams pushed ob at ATL 49 for 28 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 56%

    (11:19) 7-B.Robinson left end to PIT 32 for 10 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick, 24-J.Porter).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 66%

    (7:50) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-5-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 13 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to PIT 15, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-C.Austin to PIT 27 for 12 yards (51-D.Malone). PENALTY on ATL-12-K.Hodge, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 27.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 91%

    (:29) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-5-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:32) 13-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to PIT 16, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 22 for 6 yards (40-J.Bertrand).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (7:10) (No Huddle) 2-J.Fields left guard to ATL 6 for no gain (53-N.Landman).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (5:25) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to PIT 32, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at ATL 49 for 19 yards (44-T.Andersen). PENALTY on PIT-93-M.Robinson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 48. Penalty on PIT-28-M.Killebrew, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (:31) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-13-S.Miller.