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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 33

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-5-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.19 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model