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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 39

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-5-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.31 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.11 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP