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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 38

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-5-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.96 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -2.10 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model