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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 22

Pittsburgh Steelers 12 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(:29) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-5-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.74 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 32, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model