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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 5-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to ATL 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.69 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 55, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model