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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 42

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 7-B.Robinson left end to PIT 32 for 10 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick, 24-J.Porter).

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.20 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model