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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Thursday 2024-09-05 · 20:20 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

BAL
46.1%
KC
53.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.135 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.127 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): +0.155 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

BAL 23
–
KC 24
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

BAL

Kyle Van Noy LB Out gameday concussion protocol evaluation
Adisa Isaac LB Out Hamstring
Rasheen Ali RB Doubtful Neck

KC

Marquise Brown WR Out Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 20
–
KC 27

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:18 TD BAL (8:18) 22-D.Henry right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – KC 0
  • Q1 06:02 TD KC (6:02) 1-X.Worthy right end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – KC 6
  • Q2 13:40 FG KC (13:40) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. BAL 7 – KC 10
  • Q2 05:47 FG KC (5:47) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. BAL 7 – KC 13
  • Q2 00:05 FG BAL (:05) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 10 – KC 13
  • Q3 11:38 TD KC (11:38) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – KC 19
  • Q4 15:00 TD BAL (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 80-I.Likely for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – KC 20
  • Q4 10:32 TD KC (10:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 1-X.Worthy for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 17 – KC 26
  • Q4 04:58 FG BAL (4:58) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 20 – KC 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 29%

    (3:03) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to KC 10, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 18 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (15:00) 14-M.Araiza punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (13:40) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 29%

    (9:45) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to KC 49 for 1 yard (22-T.McDuffie).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (5:47) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 68%

    (1:55) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%

    (8:31) 11-J.Stout punts 35 yards to KC 10, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 55%

    (3:46) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 90%

    (6:34) 22-D.Henry left guard to KC 20 for 2 yards (20-J.Reid; 69-M.Pennel).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 4 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 95%

    (4:58) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:00) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to BAL 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 3-D.Harty to BAL 13 for 3 yards (13-N.Johnson).