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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 58

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to BAL 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 3-D.Harty to BAL 13 for 3 yards (13-N.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.52 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 58, worth -2.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model