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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 22

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 22-D.Henry left guard to KC 20 for 2 yards (20-J.Reid; 69-M.Pennel).

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.13 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model