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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 40

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +4.27 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model