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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(9:45) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to KC 49 for 1 yard (22-T.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.86 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 50, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model