4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 45

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 11-J.Stout punts 35 yards to KC 10, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.53 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model