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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 13

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.98 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 13, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model