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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2024-01-21 · 15:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

TB
43.8%
DET
56.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.111 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Jared Goff (DET): +0.109 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 24
–
DET 26
Projected margin: DET by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

TB

No players on the report.

DET

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 23
–
DET 31

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:28 FG DET (8:28) 17-M.Badgley 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox. TB 0 – DET 3
  • Q1 04:23 FG TB (4:23) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 3 – DET 3
  • Q2 12:38 TD DET (12:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – DET 9
  • Q2 00:19 TD TB (:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – DET 10
  • Q3 03:51 TD DET (3:51) 13-C.Reynolds up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 10 – DET 16
  • Q3 00:16 TD TB (:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – DET 17
  • Q4 13:21 TD DET (13:21) 26-J.Gibbs left tackle for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 17 – DET 23
  • Q4 06:27 TD DET (6:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 17 – DET 30
  • Q4 04:41 TD TB (4:41) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 23 – DET 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (14:27) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to TB 20, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 20 for no gain (25-W.Harris; 42-J.Reeves-Maybin).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (8:28) 17-M.Badgley 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

    (4:23) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (9:51) 5-J.Camarda punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:51) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to TB 13, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 78%

    (2:29) 4-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:35) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to TB 8, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 13 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 43%

    (10:40) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to DET 5, Center-97-Z.Triner. 19-D.Peoples-Jones to DET 15 for 10 yards (26-K.Merriweather).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:23) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to TB 40, Center-43-J.McQuaide, downed by DET-42-J.Reeves-Maybin.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 14 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:22) 5-J.Camarda punts 41 yards to DET 23, Center-97-Z.Triner. 19-D.Peoples-Jones to DET 31 for 8 yards (87-P.Durham). PENALTY on TB-8-S.Dennis, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DET 31.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (3:51) 13-C.Reynolds up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:23) 5-J.Camarda punts 58 yards to DET 11, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-19-D.Moore.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:37) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at DET 44 for 24 yards (31-K.Joseph).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 11 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 48%

    (2:06) 3-J.Fox punts 35 yards to TB 10, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.