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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 47

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to DET 5, Center-97-Z.Triner. 19-D.Peoples-Jones to DET 15 for 10 yards (26-K.Merriweather).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.68 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model