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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 66

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 5-J.Camarda punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 24, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP