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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 55

Detroit Lions 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to TB 8, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.66 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP