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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 68

Detroit Lions 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:27) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to TB 20, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 20 for no gain (25-W.Harris; 42-J.Reeves-Maybin).

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model