Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 68

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Detroit Lions 31

(5:37) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at DET 44 for 24 yards (31-K.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.13 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.77 EP