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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 45

Detroit Lions 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 3-J.Fox punts 35 yards to TB 10, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.37 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP