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HC Mike Vrabel
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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2023-12-31 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

TEN
39.9%
HOU
60.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to HOU: C.J. Stroud (HOU) +0.135 vs Will Levis (TEN) -0.183 EPA/dropback (HOU starting C.J. Stroud in place of Case Keenum; TEN starting Will Levis in place of Ryan Tannehill)
  • HOU offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • TEN offense: -0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 21
–
HOU 24
Projected margin: HOU by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

TEN

Quinton Bohanna DT Out Not injury related - personal matter
Caleb Farley CB Out Back
JoJo Domann LB Questionable Illness
Tre Avery CB Questionable Knee
Marlon Davidson DT Questionable Groin
Josh Whyle TE Questionable Knee

HOU

Jonathan Greenard DE Out Ankle
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Hip
Steven Nelson CB Questionable Foot
Will Anderson DE Questionable Ankle
Andrew Beck FB Questionable Calf
Sheldon Rankins DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 3
–
HOU 26

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:20 FG HOU (7:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. TEN 0 – HOU 3
  • Q2 10:14 TD HOU (10:14) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 9-B.Jordan for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – HOU 9
  • Q2 10:10 TD HOU (10:10) (Shotgun) 61-J.Ojukwu reported in as eligible. 8-W.Levis sacked at TEN 16 for -9 yards (55-J.Hughes). FUMBLES (55-J.Hughes) [55-J.Hughes], touched at TEN 15, RECOVERED by HOU-98-S.Rankins at TEN 13. 98-S.Rankins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-8-W.Levis was injured during the play. He is Out. TEN 0 – HOU 16
  • Q2 04:21 FG HOU (4:21) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. TEN 0 – HOU 20
  • Q2 00:01 FG TEN (:01) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-13-T.Zentner. TEN 3 – HOU 20
  • Q3 09:39 FG HOU (9:39) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. TEN 3 – HOU 23
  • Q4 05:37 FG HOU (5:37) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. TEN 3 – HOU 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:12) 13-T.Zentner punts 39 yards to HOU 32, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (7:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:21) (No Huddle) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 43 for 12 yards (5-J.Pitre).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 15 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 40%

    (2:47) 13-T.Zentner punts 42 yards to HOU 6, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:26) 13-T.Zentner punts 46 yards to HOU 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 36 for 11 yards (40-A.Kendall).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 92%

    (4:21) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:14) 13-T.Zentner punts 57 yards to HOU 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 31 for 19 yards (41-O.Reese). TEN-14-C.Dowell was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:22) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 22 for 13 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson; 46-J.Weeks).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 72%

    (:01) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-13-T.Zentner.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (9:39) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 50%

    (6:22) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 16-T.Burks ran ob at HOU 37 for 7 yards (25-D.King).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 99%

    (1:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 85-C.Okonkwo (48-C.Harris).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 14 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:27) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:40) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 35 for -7 yards (95-D.Barnett).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 76%

    (5:37) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:05) 13-T.Zentner punts 64 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-44-M.Brown.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to TEN 33, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 42 for 9 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson; 33-D.Ogunbowale).