Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 63

Houston Texans 20 – Tennessee Titans 0

(1:22) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 22 for 13 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson; 46-J.Weeks).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.91 EP
51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model