Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 85

Houston Texans 26 – Tennessee Titans 3

(2:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to TEN 33, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 42 for 9 yards (30-D.Houston-Carson; 33-D.Ogunbowale).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.76 EP
52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 85, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model