4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 10

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.57 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.85 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 10, worth +0.90 EP
KICK +2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth +0.14 EP
PUNT +0.84 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model