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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 55

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(4:21) (No Huddle) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 43 for 12 yards (5-J.Pitre).

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.10 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model