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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 59

Houston Texans 23 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(10:27) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.90 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 59, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model