4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 13-T.Zentner punts 39 yards to HOU 32, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.94 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -2.19 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 29, worth -2.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model