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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Saturday 2023-12-30 · 20:15 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

DET
41.3%
DAL
58.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.193 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.123 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.171 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.119 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DET 24
–
DAL 27
Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

DET

Brock Wright TE Out Hip
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson S Out Pectoral
James Houston LB Out Ankle
Cameron Sutton CB Questionable Toe

DAL

Rico Dowdle RB Out Ankle
Johnathan Hankins DT Out Knee
Viliami Fehoko DE Questionable Knee
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 19
–
DAL 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:50 FG DET (10:50) 17-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 3 – DAL 0
  • Q1 03:40 TD DAL (3:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 3 – DAL 6
  • Q3 04:38 TD DET (4:38) 5-D.Montgomery left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 9 – DAL 7
  • Q3 00:27 FG DAL (:27) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DET 10 – DAL 10
  • Q4 12:21 FG DET (12:21) 17-M.Badgley 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 13 – DAL 10
  • Q4 07:25 TD DAL (7:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-B.Cooks for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – DAL 16
  • Q4 01:45 FG DAL (1:45) 17-B.Aubrey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DET 13 – DAL 20
  • Q4 00:27 TD DET (:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 19 – DAL 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 90%

    (10:50) 17-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 15 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 43%

    (4:35) 3-J.Fox punts 36 yards to DAL 11, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:17) 3-J.Fox punts 70 yards to end zone, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (15:00) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to DET 35, Center-44-T.Sieg. 11-K.Raymond to DET 42 for 7 yards (30-J.Thomas).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64%

    (10:01) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 42-J.Reeves-Maybin. 42-J.Reeves-Maybin pass deep right to 30-K.Dorsey to DAL 41 for 31 yards (18-J.Tolbert).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (5:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 87-S.LaPorta.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 13 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:53) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to DET 15, Center-44-T.Sieg. 11-K.Raymond to DET 40 for 25 yards (99-C.Golston).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:44) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to DAL 9, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 12 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:10) 5-B.Anger punts 43 yards to DET 23, Center-44-T.Sieg. 11-K.Raymond to DET 26 for 3 yards (54-S.Williams).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 58%

    (9:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta to DAL 37 for 4 yards (1-J.Kearse).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 76%

    (:27) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (12:21) 17-M.Badgley 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:59) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to DAL 27, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 13 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 35%

    (2:39) 5-B.Anger punts 39 yards to DET 11, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 88%

    (1:45) 17-B.Aubrey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.