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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 85

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to DET 35, Center-44-T.Sieg. 11-K.Raymond to DET 42 for 7 yards (30-J.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.37 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 85, worth -4.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 43, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model