4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 41

Detroit Lions 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(9:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta to DAL 37 for 4 yards (1-J.Kearse).

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.40 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.15 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model