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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 33

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(:27) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.38 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model