4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 25

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 17-B.Aubrey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +1.83 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 35, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model