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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 70

Detroit Lions 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 3-J.Fox punts 70 yards to end zone, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 70, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 28, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model