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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 66

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(12:10) 5-B.Anger punts 43 yards to DET 23, Center-44-T.Sieg. 11-K.Raymond to DET 26 for 3 yards (54-S.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.78 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 24, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model