Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DET offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- Nick Mullens (MIN): +0.234 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- MIN defense: -0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- DET defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
DET
MIN
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:17 TD DET (7:17) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 5-D.Montgomery right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – MIN 0
- Q1 02:53 TD MIN (2:53) (Shotgun) 32-T.Chandler right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – MIN 6
- Q2 05:08 FG DET (5:08) 17-M.Badgley 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 10 – MIN 7
- Q2 01:54 TD DET (1:54) 26-J.Gibbs right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – MIN 7
- Q2 00:37 TD MIN (:37) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 17 – MIN 13
- Q3 12:01 TD MIN (12:01) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass short right to 17-K.Osborn for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 17 – MIN 20
- Q3 04:41 TD DET (4:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 23 – MIN 21
- Q4 11:09 TD DET (11:09) 26-J.Gibbs right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 29 – MIN 21
- Q4 05:22 FG MIN (5:22) 1-G.Joseph 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. DET 30 – MIN 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 60%
(:22) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep right intended for 3-J.Addison INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at DET 20. 32-B.Branch to DET 20 for no gain (3-J.Addison).
-
Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(14:12) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to MIN 30, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.
-
Q2 MIN 4th & 12 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(12:09) 14-R.Wright punts 50 yards to DET 22, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
-
Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%
(5:08) 17-M.Badgley 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.
-
Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 74%
(8:28) 26-J.Gibbs left guard to MIN 16 for 18 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
-
Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 7Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%
(6:01) 16-J.Goff up the middle to MIN 5 for 2 yards (58-J.Hicks).
-
Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 63%
(3:08) 14-R.Wright punts 50 yards to DET 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
-
Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 54%
(7:40) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to MIN 16, Center-43-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
-
Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%
(5:22) 1-G.Joseph 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
-
Q4 DET 4th & 18 at the 64 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(2:36) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to MIN 7, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 4-B.Powell to MIN 12 for 5 yards (59-T.Nowaske).