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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 34
Detroit Lions 17 – Minnesota Vikings 21
What Actually Happened
(8:28) 26-J.Gibbs left guard to MIN 16 for 18 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
The Three Options
GO
+2.05 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.78 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
KICK
+0.71 EP
- 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
- 26% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT
-0.18 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
