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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 58

Detroit Lions 30 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to MIN 16, Center-43-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 58, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP