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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 18

Detroit Lions 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 17-M.Badgley 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.82 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 18, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model