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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 64

Detroit Lions 30 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to MIN 7, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 4-B.Powell to MIN 12 for 5 yards (59-T.Nowaske).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.76 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 64, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 22, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model