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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 14-R.Wright punts 50 yards to DET 22, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.33 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model