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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Detroit Lions 23

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 14-R.Wright punts 50 yards to DET 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP