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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2023-12-17 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 36.0

Win Probability

NYJ
16.2%
MIA
83.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.277 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.190 vs Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.229 EPA/dropback
  • MIA defense: -0.138 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.154 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • MIA offense: +0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 16
–
MIA 27
Projected margin: MIA by 11 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

NYJ

Zaire Barnes LB Out Hamstring
Jason Brownlee WR Out Ankle
Aaron Rodgers QB Out Achilles
Carter Warren T Doubtful Hip
Will McDonald DE Questionable Knee
Nick Bawden FB Questionable Knee
John Franklin-Myers DE Questionable Ankle
Joe Tippmann C Questionable Shoulder
Max Mitchell T Questionable Neck

MIA

DeShon Elliott S Out Concussion
Robert Hunt G Out Hamstring
Tyreek Hill WR Questionable Ankle
Devon Achane RB Questionable Toe
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Christopher Brooks RB Questionable Knee
Liam Eichenberg G Questionable Calf
Jevon Holland S Questionable Knee
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Hip
Austin Jackson T Questionable Oblique
Andrew Van Ginkel LB Questionable Oblique

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 0
–
MIA 30

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:41 TD MIA (7:41) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – MIA 6
  • Q2 14:00 FG MIA (14:00) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NYJ 0 – MIA 10
  • Q2 07:51 TD MIA (7:51) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 17-J.Waddle for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – MIA 16
  • Q2 01:07 TD MIA (1:07) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – MIA 23
  • Q3 08:39 FG MIA (8:39) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NYJ 0 – MIA 27
  • Q4 11:46 FG MIA (11:46) 7-J.Sanders 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NYJ 0 – MIA 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 23%

    (11:17) 16-J.Bailey punts 38 yards to NYJ 12, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:29) (Punt formation) 21-A.Davis up the middle to NYJ 41 for -1 yards (94-C.Wilkins, 98-R.Davis).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

    (14:00) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 11 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 23%

    (9:25) 16-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to NYJ 9, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:58) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to MIA 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:37) 5-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to MIA 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 20 for 13 yards (34-J.Hardee).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21%

    (:12) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to MIA 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 29 for 9 yards (21-A.Davis, 88-K.Yeboah). NYJ-19-I.Charles was injured during the play.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (14:10) 5-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to MIA 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-B.Berrios pushed ob at 50 for 19 yards (21-A.Davis).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 35%

    (11:34) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at NYJ 20 for 25 yards (3-J.Whitehead).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (8:39) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 60%

    (:21) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane up the middle to NYJ 32 for 4 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 13 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 93%

    (11:46) 7-J.Sanders 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 18 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (6:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to NYJ 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:51) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass deep left intended for 82-X.Gipson INTERCEPTED by 29-B.Jones at MIA 34. 29-B.Jones to MIA 34 for no gain (82-X.Gipson).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 12 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:36) 16-J.Bailey punts 22 yards to NYJ 46, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-44-B.Ferguson.