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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 50

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 16-J.Bailey punts 38 yards to NYJ 12, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.33 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 50, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model