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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 36

Miami Dolphins 27 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:21) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane up the middle to NYJ 32 for 4 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.64 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model