Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 74

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(:12) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to MIA 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 29 for 9 yards (21-A.Davis, 88-K.Yeboah). NYJ-19-I.Charles was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.71 EP
79% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 74, worth -2.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model