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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 9

Miami Dolphins 24 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.50 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 9, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model